The ecological forecast horizon

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ele.12443

Forecast proficiency variation in a time series from a Ricker model, with or without demographic stochasticity introduced in the time series representing the "real" population dynamic over which the model predicts. The variation of forecast proficiency is shown with respect to variation in uncertainty on the value of the model parameters (r, N0 and K)